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A Quick Look: Chelsea FC.

A Quick Look: Chelsea FC.

A Quick Look: Chelsea FC.

A Quick Look: Chelsea FC.

Chelsea have been very hot and cold so far this season, which is expected to a degree when you consider the age of their squad and their recent appointment of Mauricio Pochettino. But how far along are they? Are their signs of progress and when will Chelsea be Chelsea again.

Team Summary

Mauricio Pochettino has a reputation as an attacking manager, who likes his teams to be play with intensity and energy. His Tottenham team serves as great example of what Poch ball is. A few years have passed since then, so a few changes in how he manages his teams is to be expected, but looking back at that Spurs team still serves as a great starting point for understanding the principles that he favors.

Thirteen games into the season and Chelsea have the second highest possession stats in the league. Indicative of a team that wants to attack. They want the ball and they usually have lots of it. With players like Fernandez, Caicedo, Colwill, Chilwell, Cucurella, Thiago Silva, James and Gusto forming the foundation of their build up phase, Chelsea have the personnel to keep the ball well against the vast majority of Premier League sides. But how are Chelsea using the ball when they have it? According to data provided by Opta, they prefer a slower more methodical build up style of play, which is demonstrated by their high possession numbers. As you can see in the graph below, Chelsea have the fourth highest passes per sequence of all the teams in the league. However the direct speed is quicker than City, Arsenal, and Brighton. This is suggestive of a team that despite enjoying possession, aren’t afraid to adopt shorter, faster passing sequences when its beneficial to them.

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In addition to the technical players that allow Chelsea to keep the ball well, they also possess a high amount of athletic players who are either quick or high energy. This gives Chelsea flexibility in how they can play. Having a lot of athletes means that Chelsea can be very dangerous in transition, and don’t mind if they are without the ball in games. To add Chelsea have the second highest total for high turnovers amongst Premier League teams this season.

Chelsea in the big games

Up until recently Chelsea have faired well in their big matchups this season. Losses to Newcastle and Manchester United have put a damper on spirits, but prior to these they had performed admirably against the other top sides in the division. Having less of the ball in these games allows Chelsea to utilize the energy and speed of their attacking players in order to create chances through transition moments or by winning the ball high up the field. Playing in space is always easier than playing against a low-block, and that plays in to the hands of players like Jackson, Sterling and Mudryk. In all of their big games, apart from the two aforementioned defeats, Chelsea have collected more xG in all of their games against their big rivals. Now xG isn’t the be all and end all when it comes to telling the story of a football match, it’s more nuanced than that, but its a good place to start (And let me not fail to mention that all of these impressive performances against the big sides have been at home, barring the crazy game against Tottenham). Let’s take a closer look at Chelsea’s xGs from all their games so far this season.

xG Ratio: 0.27.

Shots: 155.

xG: 20.16.

Goals: 15.

SP Shots: 40. (*SP - Set Piece)

SP xG: 4.87.

SP Goals: 5.

This is what their numbers look like in isolation, a healthy amount of xG and 0.09 ratio of goals to shots. The one thing that immediately catches the eye is the difference between their goal tally and their xG. What does that look like in context compared to the rest of the league?

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Chelsea have the fourth highest xG in the league, just behind the top performers in the league, but their goal return is ranked 12th in the division. The only teams with a comparable xG deficit are Manchester United and Everton. Would chalking down all of Chelsea’s issues this season to an inability to finish off their chances be fair? As mentioned earlier, force turnovers at a high level, but their conversion from those high turnovers undoes all of their good work. Chelsea rank second for total high turnovers but twelfth for high turnovers ending in shots. Even more damming is the return of one goal from high turnovers, placing them seventeenth in the division.

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The numbers suggest that Chelsea are doing all of the right things that are needed to win football matches from an attacking stand point, but they just can’t put the ball in the back of the net. If they continue as they are and can convert the chances that they create on a more regular basis, averaging around their xG, they could find themselves sneaking in to a European race come the end of the season.

(All graphics and data courtesy of TheAnalyst.com and Opta.)